"Super Duper Tuesday" Is Overrated

It used to be called Super Tuesday. This was the Tuesday in either February or March where the largest number of states held their presidential primary election. In some election cycles there have even been multiple Super Tuesdays (there were 3 Super Tuesdays in the 1984 presidential election). But this year takes the cake. The stakes are higher because a record number of states, 24 to be exact, will hold their primaries on the same day. The pundits have dubbed it Super Duper Tuesday.

So as I write this on the night before Super Duper Tuesday, I am going on record to say that it is overrated. It has been built up to make us all think that the Republican nominee will be decided by this time tomorrow night (probably by the time you read this Super Duper Tuesday will have passed). With all the talk of momentum and strategery, the primary election comes down to delegates. The fact of the matter is that no Republican candidate will secure the nomination on Super Duper Tuesday (or SDT). It is mathematically impossible.

Republican Party Delegate Count
Delegates needed to secure the nomination - 1,191
John McCain - 97 (needs 1,094)
Mitt Romney - 92 (needs 1,099)
Mike Huckabee - 29 (needs 1,162)

Delegates up for grabs on SDT - 1,081

Source: CNN.com

So you can see that even if one candidate swept every single state on SDT (HIGHLY unlikely), he would still not have the majority of delegates which is what would be required to secure the nomination.

The primary elections will not be over tomorrow. In fact, they may linger on for a few more months. The polls say Romney is lagging but he is fabulously wealthy and finances his own campaign. Even if he does fall behind, he has the money to push on and campaign all the way to the GOP national convention if necessary.

Super Duper Tuesday is overrated. All of a sudden, the Texas primary on March 4 looks a lot more important. My vote is going to count after all!

=MV=